Our Reckoning With the Islamic Republic of Iran: Operations Epic Fury and Roaring Lion

The question is not whether Iran poses a threat. The question is whether we possess the resolve to confront it before the cost becomes catastrophic.

The long-simmering tensions between the United States, Israel, and the Islamic Republic of Iran have erupted into open conflict. What was once a question of deterrence has become a full-scale military reckoning. On February 28, 2026 the U.S. and Israel launched joint Operations Epic Fury (U.S. designation) and Roaring Lion (Israeli designation), targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, IRGC installations, intelligence headquarters, air defenses, naval assets, drone facilities, and senior regime leadership. This decisive action followed failed nuclear negotiations and intelligence revealing an imminent threat from Tehran.

President Donald Trump, who has long vowed that ‘Iran will never have a nuclear weapon,’ authorized the strikes, stating that the operations are necessary to dismantle Iran’s threats to U.S. and Israeli security and to pave the way for potential regime change.

As of this writing United States Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed six U.S. service members killed in action (KIA) and 18 wounded in the ongoing campaign, emphasizing that American military stockpiles remain in excellent condition. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has affirmed that U.S. forces are positioned, supplied, and executing operations with overwhelming force against missile threats, proxy attacks, and maritime disruptions.

It is now Day 4 of the operations and is ongoing with no confirmed ceasefire agreement reached or expected. Over 2,000 targets have been struck across Iran, including command nodes, internal security apparatus, and technology parks near Tehran. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in the initial strikes on his compound, along with high ranking officials such as Defense Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Chief Mohammad Pakpour, and Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh.

Israeli officials claim more than 1,000 Iranian regime members have been eliminated since the operations began. Iranian retaliation under Operation True Promise IV has involved multiple waves of ballistic missiles and Shahed drones targeting Israel, U.S. bases in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Cyprus, and commercial shipping. Most attacks from the Iranian regime have been intercepted by defenses like Patriot and Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) systems, but limited damage has occurred, including one civilian death in Tel Aviv from a missile strike, debris-related fires in Gulf states, and a drone impact on a high-rise in Bahrain.

Hezbollah has formally entered the conflict, launching missiles and drones at Israel in retaliation for Khamenei’s death. Pro-Iranian regime groups such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iraqi militias have vowed continued resistance, with Houthi attacks renewing once again in the Red Sea. Cyber attacks by groups like the Handala Hacker Group have disrupted infrastructure, including gas stations in Jordan.

Satellite imagery confirms extensive damage to sites like Konarak Naval Base (sunken frigates and destroyed drone bunkers), Tabriz missile base, and various Tehran facilities.

Iran’s oil economy, already strained, is now under direct assault amid the conflict. Prior to the operations, Iran exported approximately 1.2 to 1.6 million barrels per day through sanctions evasion, primarily to China at discounted rates, with smaller volumes to Syria and other grey market buyers in Asia. India and South Korea had reduced imports under U.S. pressure. Evasion tactics included ship-to-ship transfers, reflagging tankers, disabling transponders, and third-party routing. However, the strikes have targeted naval assets and disrupted operations in the Strait of Hormuz, the critical chokepoint for 20 percent of global oil supply leading to shipping interruptions, tanker hits, and volatile oil prices. Additional pressure points like the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Suez Canal corridor are seeing heightened threats from Houthi and other proxy activities. There is no formal US or Israeli blockade, but the U.S. Navy’s Fifth Fleet operations combined with the strikes have intensified deterrence and interdictions.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and so-called OPEC+ coalition are responding by considering output adjustments; Saudi Arabia and the UAE, with spare capacity of 1 to 2 million barrels per day, are positioned to increase production to stabilize markets amid the disruptions.

The humanitarian toll inside Iran is escalating amid the chaos. The regime’s history of repression is well documented and, for example, very evident in the 2022 protests following Mahsa Amini’s death, where hundreds were killed and thousands are still detained with ongoing executions and suppression. Credible reports estimate thousands killed in crackdowns since 2009.

The current operations have struck internal security apparatus, potentially fueling dissent, as some Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders reportedly seek immunity deals. The Iranian people, long aspiring for dignity and self-determination, may see this as a catalyst for change beneath decades of clerical rule.

U.S. defense officials have long assessed Iranian-financed proxy terror organizations and militias are responsible for American casualties in Iraq during the Global War on Terror (GWOT) through tools like explosively formed projectiles(EFP) which penetrated through armored military personnel vehicles as if they were fortified with soft linen handkerchiefs. That legacy now informs the direct strikes, with six confirmed U.S. combat fatalities in this conflict marking a shift from proxy skirmishes to open warfare.

Decapitation strikes have successfully targeted Iran’s top leadership, degrading the regime’s command structure. The Abraham Accords have strengthened regional alignments, with the UAE, Bahrain, and Morocco enhancing intelligence coordination and integrated air defenses with Israel. Gulf states hosting U.S. assets are on high alert, experiencing collateral damage from Iranian retaliations but supporting the operations as vital for security.

The useless United Nations Security Council (UNSC) remains divided with Russia and China shielding Tehran diplomatically while Western nations back the strikes as necessary to enforce nuclear constraints and achieve deescalation. World leaders’ reactions are mixed: some endorse the actions for security reasons, others warn of broader war risks.

The core issues of the military actions are:

Iran posed an imminent threat, Iran’s uranium enrichment beyond thresholds, ballistic missile development, terror illicit finance, and domestic repression have driven this kinetic response with the Iranian people continuing to protest the regime with their uprising.

Nuclear sites in Isfahan and elsewhere have been hit, aiming to halt weaponization. The economic consequences are unfolding in real time: oil prices spiking, shipping insurance surging, OPEC capacity tested, and global inflation pressures mounting. Western consumers are already feeling the impact.

The regime in Tehran, reliant on oil revenue, coercion, and religious extremism militancy now face many existential threats. With momentum building toward regime change, the success of these operations will be measured through deterrence breaches, economic sanctions, internal unrest, and regional containment. Ideally this will prevent further escalation while reshaping the Middle East.

Prayers remain due for American service members in the Gulf who are actively engaged in this mission and their families. Prayers for Israeli civilians enduring missile barrages from Iran and its proxies. Above all, prayers for the Iranian people, whose hopes for freedom may finally emerge from the ashes of this reckoning.

This confrontation with Iran has created a near confluence of economic, ideological, strategic, and unmistakably military events which will help to achieve the goal of closing a 47 year long Iranian dictatorial theocracy with the Iranian people’s self determined governance. Its outcome will define the Middle East’s balance of power for generations.

The hour is late. The stakes are monumental. The question is not whether Iran poses a threat. The question is whether we possess the resolve to confront it before the cost becomes catastrophic.