Roger Stone Handicaps Who Will Be the Next Pope

Pope Francis’ health has been waning for quite some time, and it appears he is not long for his world. Recently reported as having double pneumonia and with his condition worsening, it is likely that in the not-too-distant future, the Vatican will be looking for his successor.

The process to choose a new pope is called a “conclave.” After a Pope dies or resigns from office, a group of the highest ranking non-papal officials within the Catholic Church, the Cardinals, gather in Rome. Cardinals over the age of 80 are excluded from the process, stemming from a Pope Paul VI edict made in 1970. This will likely make it more difficult for a conservative successor for Francis to be named.

Among the current College of Cardinals, 80 percent of them have been chosen by Francis, indicating that significant change within the direction of the Church is unlikely. These are the electors, and there’s a cap of 120, though the number can vary slightly depending on circumstances. They meet in the Sistine Chapel, the pope's official residence in Vatican City, and they’re essentially locked in—hence the term "conclave," from the Latin cum clave, meaning "with a key." Similar to a sequestered jury during a high-profile case, the idea is to shield them from undue influence and protect the integrity of the process.

The cardinals cast ballots—up to four times a day, two in the morning and two in the afternoon. Each writes the name of their chosen candidate on a slip of paper, folds it, and places it in a chalice on the altar. The ballots are counted by three scrutineers, and to win, a candidate needs a two-thirds majority of the votes. If no one gets that majority after a round, the ballots are burned with a chemical that turns the smoke black—visible from St. Peter’s Square to signal no pope yet. This process repeats until there is a victor, at which point the smoke turns white, thanks to a different chemical mix, and the crowd knows a new pope has been chosen. That is when "Habemus Papam"—Latin for "We have a pope"—is shouted from the balcony.

The winner is compelled to accept the election, choose his papal name, and then prepare himself to lead over a billion Catholics worldwide. The whole thing can take days or even weeks, though modern conclaves tend to wrap up faster—often within a couple of days. One common misunderstanding is that people, including many Catholics, believe that the Church teaches that the Holy Spirit directly chooses the next Pope. This is not so, while we pray that the Cardinals are guided by the Holy Spirit.

JOCKEYING THE NEXT POPE:

While it may seem inappropriate to jockey the election of the next Pope, as both a baptized Catholic and a political strategist, I feel an obligation to give you the names of those currently rumored to be in contention:

Cardinal Pietro Parolin (Italy, 70): As the Vatican’s Secretary of State, Parolin might be the current frontrunner for the position. A moderate with extensive diplomatic experience, he is viewed as a continuation of Pope Francis’ policies. Though some controversial dealings, like the Vatican’s agreement with China, might complicate his candidacy.

Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle (Philippines, 67): Known as the "Asian Francis," Tagle is a progressive figure aligned with Francis’ pastoral approach. My sources tell me he would be the worst choice for the Church and be further to the left of our current Pope. At 67, he could be there for a very long time if chosen.

Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Italy, 69): A favorite of Pope Francis, Zuppi is the president of the Italian Episcopal Conference and a moderate known for social justice advocacy. His work as a peace envoy and his ties to the Sant’Egidio Community bolster his profile among those seeking continuity with Francis’ legacy.

Cardinal Fridolin Ambongo Besungu (Democratic Republic of the Congo, 65): A conservative voice from Africa, Ambongo has gained attention for opposing Francis’ liberal stances, notably on same-sex blessings. His leadership in the African Church makes him a potential candidate for those favoring a traditionalist shift.

Cardinal Wim Eijk (Netherlands, 71): A former doctor and staunch conservative, Eijk is known for opposing Francis’ views on marriage and divorce. His traditionalist stance could appeal to cardinals seeking a counterbalance to recent reforms.

Cardinal Raymond Burke (United States, 76): An outspoken American traditionalist, Burke has clashed with Francis over issues like marriage, the Eucharist, and gay matters. He’s a long shot but represents a vocal conservative faction. My sources think Burke would launch major reforms to strengthen the Church until the young Catholics, who are overwhelmingly conservative, are ready to take the helm.

Cardinal Péter Erdő (Hungary, 72): A conservative canon lawyer, Erdő is respected for his adherence to Church doctrine and low-profile approach. He’s been mentioned in past conclaves and could attract moderate and conservative votes.

Cardinal Mario Grech (Malta, 67): As Secretary General of the Synod of Bishops, Grech is a Francis appointee with a progressive bent, emphasizing dialogue with marginalized groups. He’s a less prominent but plausible contender.

Though, if I had my druthers, Cardinal Robert Sarah (Guinea, 79) would be my pick. Sarah is a staunch Conservative, defender of the faith and the Church, believer in borders and the rules of the West. No man is more suited for the monumental job than he. With his dark complexion and his articulation of traditional teachings of the Church, his Eminence would very much serve as pontiff in the same vein as Justice Clarence Thomas.